A study from Digital TV Research has made the worrying prediction that pay-TV revenues in the leading TV markets are set to follow their current sharp downward spiral and will total to $150 billion in 2025, a fall of $52 billion since peaking in 2016.
The Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report tracked pay-TV revenues for 138 countries and identified declines in 61 countries between 2019 and 2025. This was despite the number of global pay-TV subscribers rising by 35 million between 2019 and 2025. The top five countries will account for 56% of global pay-TV revenues by 2025. The next 15 countries will bring in a further 25%. Therefore, the top 20 countries will contribute 81% of pay TV revenues by 2025.The analyst attributes much of the losses to subscribers converting from standalone TV to a bundle where they pay more overall to the operator but less on TV services. Cord-cutting is also a major problem, especially in the US which says the research will likely have the most dramatic fall, $31 billion, in the years to 2025. Brazil and Canada are projected to will each lose more than $1 billion.
On a positive note, India is set to gain $812 million in pay TV revenues between 2019 and 2025 to take its total to $6 billion – up by 16%. The second biggest winner is set to be Indonesia, with a $719 million gain.
Looking at the likely leading platforms, the study expects satellite TV revenues will fall by $18 billion between 2019 and 2025. The US alone will decline by $14 billion. IPTV revenues will be flat between 2019 and 2025 at $27 billion. Global cable TV revenues (digital and analogue together) peaked at $97 billion in 2012, but will fall to $63 billion in 2025.
In an important caveat to the projections, Digital TV Research said that the Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report assumes that professional sports will restart in August 2020 following the relaxation of Covid-19 lockdowns. If this does not happen, the analyst warns that pay-TV will experience considerable churn.
