Global pay-TV universe to reach 1.06BN subscribers by 2025 | Media Analysis | Business
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Despite the almost global threat of cord-cutting, a study by Digital TV Research into the pay-TV markets of 138 countries is predicting that 35 million additional subscribers will be added to the respective markets between 2019 and 2025 taking the global total to 1.06 billion.
Sky BT 21Feb2020
The analyst says in its Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts report that excluding analogue cable TV, its forecast growth for digital pay-TV growth is “really impressive”, climbing from 380 million subscribers in 2010 to 990 million at the end of 2019 and on to 1.062 billion five years later.

The report highlighted IPTV as the clear leading platform set to add 84 million subscribers between 2019 and 2025 to take its total to 391 million. IPTV is also forecast to increase its share of pay-TV subscribers from 30% in 2019 to 37% in 2025. By contrast, satellite TV is forecast to lose 4 million subscribers between 2019 and 2025, generating a fifth of pay-TV subscribers by 2025; down slightly from 21% in 2019.

Cable TV showed the biggest swing in fortunes for platforms. The study said that cable TV will account for 40% of all pay-TV subscribers by 2025, down from 47% in 2019 and “massively” down from 74% in 2010. There will likely be 430 million cable TV subs, both analogue and digital, by 2025, 101 million lower than the 531 million recorded in 2010. Interestingly there were still 38 million analogue cable TV subscribers by the end of 2019. Yet Digital TV Research noted that it was not just analogue that is the problem for the cable industry: the digital sector is primed to lose subscribers, falling from 446 million at end-2019 to 429 million by 2025.

As a huge caveat, the Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts report cautioned that its calculations were based on the assumption that the most popular professional sports will restart in August following relaxations in the Covid-19 lockdown. It warned that if this does not happen, then pay-TV will experience considerable churn.