Coronavirus: Omdia predicts ‘shocking reversal of fortune’ for TV market | Media Analysis | Business
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As the crisis caused by the Covid-19 outbreak spreads globally,  analyst Omdia is predicting a sharp downturn in TV shipments for 2020 spurred by government mitigation efforts.

OMdia TV 1April2020The company’s TV Sets Market Tracker calculates that shipments will fall by 8.7% in 2020, declining to 203.5 million units, down from 222.9 million in 2019, as reported by. Omdia previously forecast shipments would rise by 1.1% to reach 225.4 million units for the year. This represents a 9.8% downswing in the shipment forecast for the year.

Omdia attributes the sharp plunge in demand as the direct result of government mandates in countries all over the world to restrict individual movement. In addition, it recognises as another contributory factor the suspension of the normal sport calendar, in particular the postponement of the 2020 UEFA European Football Championship and the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games.

Omdia now forecasts the majority of the demand drop will occur in the second quarter. However, with TV brands facing order cancellations from retailers starting in the beginning of March, shipments are set to fall by 16% compared to the second quarter of 2019.

While China will start to recover in the second quarter, shipments in Europe and North America are expected to fall by more than 40%. Other regions will decline by a smaller margin as they have advance warning to put effective measures in place—avoiding dramatic shutdowns.

In assessing the impact of the situation, Paul Gray, research director, consumer devices, for Omdia, noted that at a regional level, annual declines in television shipments of more than 10% were not that unusual and that over the last twelve years there had been a dozen such regional events. Yet Gray pointed out that what was unprecedented was these declines were now happening everywhere simultaneously due to global government action, a phenomenon never before seen in the history of the TV market.

“The global television market is experiencing a shocking reversal of fortune,” said Paul Gray, research director, consumer devices, for Omdia. “Just one month ago, things were looking up for TV sales, with 2019 having ended on a hopeful note and all indications pointing to mild television shipment growth in 2020. However, that hope has completely evaporated during the past month as concerns about supply interruptions have been eclipsed by rising industry anxiety over a coronavirus-driven demand crash.”

While the 2020 outlook for the television market is poor, the Omdia TV Sets Market Tracker hinted at some slight optimism for 2021 based on an analysis of historical data. It said that long-term results showed that the television market’s performance is only weakly connected to overall economic performance and that a flurry of rescheduled sports events in 2021 could boost television sales.