Linear TV ad impacts set for 21% decline to 2025 | Media Analysis | Business
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Research from media consultancy Ebiquity has revealed that linear TV is set to see around a 21% fall in overall adult commercial impacts for advertisers by 2025 but buyers seeking alternatives will also find that reaching audiences online is not straightforward.
ebiquity adresearch 6Feb2020
The video-focused cross media measurement report, Mind The Gap: A Closer Look At Video Advertising Reach In The Age Of Increasing Media Fragmentation, draws upon audience measurement data from AudienceProject and BARB, and looked at insights across 15 campaigns run by five large UK advertisers towards the end of 2019.

It found fundamentally that younger linear TV audience declines have hit faster than previous forecast by the company and that predictions for older audiences that still account for the vast majority of TV viewing were broadly accurate. Younger viewers in particular are replacing linear TV with online video, broadcaster and subscription video-on-demand (VOD) services.

This was behind total linear TV commercial impacts falling by 4.4% in 2019 compared with the expected rate of 3.6%. Ebiquity also found that the increasing shrinkage of linear TV audiences will compound to around a 21% fall in overall adult commercial impacts by 2025.

For 18-24s, even with a predicted slowdown in the rate of decline, more than half (56%) of today’s audience will have disappeared by 2025 and for the younger 16-24s, 25-34s, and 35-44s, advertising served on YouTube and Facebook was found broadly to be able to match the reach delivered by TV. Ebiquity noted that brands targeting younger consumers using YouTube stand the most to gain in terms of incremental reach.

Yet it added that once quality of engagement is factored in, online video may not be enough to close the coverage gap. Moreover, when analysis shifted from a pure impression level to 50% or 100% completed reach, both platforms delivered less incremental reach, with Facebook adding little.

“Although TV remains the primary driver of ROI, the change in media consumption habits is no secret and is a phenomenon that brands cannot safely ignore. What our new study does is to confirm that the rate of change in viewing behaviour is affecting brands,” remarked Ebiquity chief strategy officer Christian Polman. “The ability to reach mass audiences at scale is critical for efficient and effective brand building. Advertisers need to take several actions today in order to close their own coverage gap and ensure success in the age of media fragmentation.”

In a call to action given the implications for brands shown in the Mind The Gap: A Closer Look At Video Advertising Reach In The Age Of Increasing Media Fragmentation research, Ebiquity had a four-point action plan; understand what the coverage gap is and what the implications are for business; take a more granular approach to measurement; make the right creative for the right channel or platform; use structured testing to evaluate and optimise the channels used use to fill the coverage gap.