Subs to keep rising but global pay-TV revenues set to fall | Media Analysis | Business
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A study from Digital TV Research is forecasting that even though there will be an additional 60 million pay-TV subscribers between 2018 and 2024, taking the global total to 1.08 billion, the business generated by such subscribers is on a downwards track driven by the current battering in the US market.
DigTVRes 11Sep2019
The Pay TV Forecasts Update report found that of the likely additions, China will provide 19 million subs and India 26 million while the US is set to lose 14.4 million pay-TV subscribers between 2018 and 2024, representing a fall of 16% in that period. Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, went as far as to say that the company expects no uplift in the US over the next five years. “Other countries will experience a slowdown – or even some small declines in subscriber numbers – but no other country will match the gloomy projections for the US,” he added.

Looking ahead to 2024, the report shows that China will continue to supply a third of the world’s pay-TV subscribers, with 356 million expected and India bringing in another 17% of the total by 2024,184 million. China and India will thus collectively provide half the world’s pay TV subscribers by 2024.

IPTV is forecast to be the leading pay-TV platform winner adding 100 million subscribers between 2018 and 2024 to take its total to 357 million. Pay IPTV penetration is projected to climb to a fifth of TV households by 2024, up from only 2.5% at the end of 2010 and 15.4% at end-2018.

As regards business, The Pay TV Forecasts Update report calculates that global pay-TV revenues from subscription fees and PPV films and TV episodes peaked in 2016 at $205 billion and will then fall by 17% to $171 billion in 2024. This would be lower than the figure set in 2010 despite the number of pay-TV subscribers rising by 359 million in that time. US pay TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $106 billion, but Digital TV Research believes that the total will drop to $70 billion in 2024.