Over 233 million 4KTVs set to ship in 2024 as 8K emerges on horizon | 4K/UltraHD | News | Rapid TV News
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A study from ABI Research is projecting that the 4K TV market will continue to grow to cement its place as the mainstream TV format over the next few years, with 4K flat panel TV shipments projected to grow at 13% CAGR to 2024.
NHK 8Nov2018
This would represent a total of 233 million and comes even though the analyst regards worldwide TV household penetration as saturated. ABI believes that the flat panel TV market has been driven by consumer adoption of TVs with higher resolution, larger screen size, and connected and integrated applications and services.

“For now, 4K will be the dominant format of the flat panel TV market, and of the content ecosystem as a result,” said Khin Sandi Lynn, industry analyst at ABI Research. “4K TV household penetration will reach slightly more than half of the TV households in mature markets, and with penetration still relatively low in emerging markets, there is significant room for 4K market growth in the years to come.”

Yet looking ahead, the analyst also observed the emergence of 8K, recognising that flat panel TV makers including Samsung, Sony, LG, and TCL have already announced the introduction of 8K flat panel TV models, which are priced between USD$5,000 and USD$70,000 depending on the display size.

ABI regards the lack of content and distribution models as the most significant barriers than cost for 8K TV adoption at the moment, noting that apart from 8K channels provided by Japanese broadcaster NHK, there are no other 8K broadcast channels currently available, although Korean Broadcasting Corporation (KBS) is working toward an 8K broadcast.

It remarked that while streaming service provider Rakuten recently announced its interest to provide 8K content in late 2019, service providers overall are not ready for 8K content, nor is there much incentive for content providers due to limited 8K TV set adoption at present.

Moreover, ABI sees a technical gating factor: that is the fact that 8K content also needs larger data files, which creates challenges in content distribution and data management. The research firm pointed to Versatile Video Coding (VVC), which achieved 34% higher efficiency over HEVC and is currently in the process of standardisation, as likely to play a vital role in driving the 8K TV market when the final standardisation completes in 2020.

8K is likely to gain momentum only when challenges are addressed, and the ecosystem evolves, Lynn added. “The cost of 8K TV sets is far from affordable for most consumers. This will limit the sales volume for the foreseeable future,” the analyst concluded in the Media Devices: Ultra HD, 4K, HDR, 8K, HEVC report. “However, we can expect the price points to decline to a more reasonable level over the next several years just as 4K sets have.”