US pay-TV revenues to fall by $27BN over next five years | Pay-TV | News | Rapid TV News
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comScoreSling 5Jan2018A huge decline is predicted by Digital TV Research for the US pay-TV market, for which it says revenues peaked in 2015, at $101.71 billion and will drop to $75.13 billion by 2023.

According to the eighth edition of the North America Pay-TV Forecasts report, the drop in revenues will be driven by a fall in number of US traditional pay-TV subscribers, from a zenith of 100.34 million in 2012 to 90.35 million by the end of 2017 and forecast to fall to 80.33 million in 2023. Pay-TV penetration is projected to fall from 87.6% of TV households in the apex year of 2013 to 66.7% in 2023. By way of contrast to its Southern neighbour, Canada’s pay-TV penetration is expected to fall less severely, from a highpoint in 2013 at 85.1% to 74.8% by 2023.

Looking at the prospects for individual pay-TV platforms in the US, Digital TV Research predicts that cable TV revenues will fall to $36.75 billion by 2023, having peaked in 2010 at $54.11 billion. This will be due to the industry losing nearly 12 million subscribers in this timeframe.

Satellite TV revenues are set to fall from $39.78 billion in 2017 to $33.61 billion in 2023, a decline of 16%. Satellite TV subscriptions will drop by 4.08 million between the end of 2017 and 2023, having fallen by nearly three million in 2017 alone. Among the reasons for this are DISH pushing its vMVPD platform Sling TV hard, with DirecTV Now also making an impact.

An expected fall in the IPTV arena is said to be mainly due to AT&T encouraging its U-Verse subscribers to convert to DirecTV, its other pay-TV asset. This is the reverse of what has happened in most other countries. IPTV revenues spiked in 2015 at $9.60 billion, and they will halve to $4.77 billion in 2023. The number of IPTV subs topped 12 million in 2014, but it will decline to 6.26 million in 2023.

Commenting on the trends, Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, and author of the report, said : “Cable TV is not the only platform to suffer. Satellite TV and IPTV are also losing subscribers and revenues. Much of this is due to the operators shifting their subscribers to online platforms. However, growth from vMVPDs is not expected to make up completely for the subscriber and revenue shortfalls from traditional pay-TV.”