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Solid growth is forecast for the pay-TV and over-the-top (OTT) TV industries in 138 key markets over the next five years, says a Digital TV Research report, reaching $283 billion by 2022.
The OTT and Pay TV Forecasts report calculates that pay-TV revenues from subscriptions and pay-per-view re and OTT revenues — derived from advertising video-on-demand (AVOD), subscription video-on-demand (SVOD), transactional video-on-demand (TVOD) and DTO — combined will have grown by 18% from $239 billion in 2016. OTT’s contribution to the revenue total is set to increase from 15% in 2016 to 29% in 2022. Its revenues will more than double over this period. OTT revenues will represent 42% of the pay TV total by 2022, up from 18% only in 2016.

SVOD subscriptions will reach half the pay-TV total by 2022 – up from 27% in 2016. SVOD subscriptions increased tenfold between 2010 and 2016, and are projected to double by 2022 to 546 million.

By contrast, pay-TV revenues are forecast to fall over the same period, although the decline will be very low. Yet the analyst warns that any perceived death of pay-TV may be somewhat exaggerated, predicting more than a billion subscribers by 2022.

The report predicts that North America will lose subscribers, and Europe will be virtually flat. However, it suggests that the Asia Pacific region will increase by 92 million subscribers between 2016 and 2022. China is likely to add 40 million subs, taking its total to 353 million. India will bring in an extra 30 million subscribers; pushing its total to 179 million. China and India together are forecast to account for half the global pay-TV subscribers by 2022.
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