The latest Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) shows that by 2021 there will be 1.3 billion more Internet users than there are today, totalling 4.6 billion or nearly 60% of the population, and 82% of Internet traffic will stem from video viewing.
There will also be ten billion more devices and connections (27.1 billion) – half of which will be machine-to-machine (M2M) – and a 100% increase in broadband speeds. All of this will translate into more global IP traffic, which will increase three-fold from 2016 to 2021. The relatively untapped markets of the Middle East and Africa will show the highest growth rate at 42%, and APAC will generate 39% of all IP traffic by 2021.Developed markets will see more level growth, as North America is already at about 80% Internet usage, and Europe continues to be saturated.
In terms of top apps, video will rule the day. Video will account for 82% of global IP traffic, and gaming will start showing significant growth. Live video will increase 15-fold and reach 13% of Internet video traffic. Virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR) traffic will increase 20-fold, but will only make up 1% of entertainment traffic. The report also said that video like UltraHD VR and 8K ‘wall TV’ will drive significant connection demands, up to 500Mbps.
Cisco also found that mobile video is growing the fastest, with a 14.8% CAGR, followed by online video (5.8% CAGR).
M2M connections (19% CAGR, 2.4-fold growth) will reach 13.7 billion connections, making it the fastest growing segment. Smartphones (11% CAGR, 1.7-fold growth) will be second-fastest, followed by connected TVs (9% CAGR, 1.6-fold) and tablets (5% CAGR, 1.3-fold). PCs meanwhile will decline by 2.5%, and non-smartphones will fall 14%.
