The analyst found that the Western European pay-TV market is set to gain 7 million subscribers between 2016 and 2022, a rise of 6.7%, taking the total to 106 million. The landmark 100 million barrier is likely to be passed in June 2017. Digital TV Research believes that much of the subscriber growth will come from countries with traditionally low pay-TV penetration: two-thirds of the region’s net additions are predicted to come from Italy (up by 1.47 million or 20% between 2016 and 2022); Spain (up 1.36 million or 23%); and France (up 1.41 million or 11%). Subscriber growth will be lower than 3% for eight of the 18 countries covered in the Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts report.

Digital TV Research forecasts that the number of digital pay-TV subscribers will increase by 15.6% (14 million) from 2016 and 2022. Analogue cable subs will fall from 8 million in 2016 to 0.5 million in 2022.

In terms of platforms, the report suggests that IPTV will add more than eight million subscribers between 2016 and 2022, but satellite-based pay-TV will lose nearly a million subs. Digital cable TV is set to gain 7.4 million subs, but analogue cable will shed almost exactly the same number. Pay-DTT will drop by 567,000 subscribers.

Even though the number of pay-TV homes is increasing, Digital TV Research forecasts the pay-TV revenues will remain flat at around $28 billion. It sees satellite TV as remaining the most lucrative pay-TV platform, but that revenues will decline by nearly $1 billion between 2016 and 2022. Mirroring its subscriber increases, IPTV revenues will climb by 27.6% between 2016 and 2022 to $5.87 billion – or up by $1.27 billion. Digital cable TV revenues will grow by $0.71 billion, but analogue cable revenues will decline by $1.13 billion. Liberty Global, Sky and Vodafone are forecast to together account for 42% of the region’s pay-TV subscribers by 2022. The same companies will take 53% of pay TV revenues.