This year, Google will continue to grow its share of search advertising, while Facebook will dominate display ads, and the two will create such a duopoly that they will combine to take 57% of the market this year — and 74% of all US ad spend growth.
That’s according to eMarketer, which said that US digital ad spending is expected to reach $83 billion this year, up 16%.
Google's search ad revenue is expected to climb 16% this year to $28.6 billion, the firm said, and to take 78% of all US search ad spend. Most of that, interestingly, will come from mobile, with its search function the default on both its own Android platform and iOS. In all, eMarketer said that Americans use Google for about 94% of their searches on mobile.
Meanwhile, eMarketer said that Facebook's US advertising share should grow 32.1% to $16.33 billion this year. To put that in perspective, its next closest competitor, Google, is expected to generate just $5.24 billion.
Mobile is a big factor here as well: Facebook will also be helped along by Instagram, which is expected to account for about 20% of Facebook's total ad revenue on mobile, up from 15% last year. Mobile accounted for 84% of Facebook's total ad revenue last quarter.
If the rumours are correct, mobile for Facebook is also about to get bigger: Adweek reported last week that the social network is prepping the launch of Mobile Video Ads, which it bills as its biggest business-to-business advertising endeavour in the company's 13-year history. Bob Gruters, the digital media giant's US group director, said that the idea was to educate and inspire marketers to invest more in mobile video ads and to generally shift industry mindsets toward clips specifically created for the platform's smartphone users.
"It's going to be online, it's going to be print, it's going to be out of home, and we'll use our platforms, which we think are really effective for B-to-B messaging," Gruters said.
Even without that, Facebook and Google are leagues away from the rest of the pack in terms of market share.
“Even with the recent introduction of ads on the extremely popular Snapchat from Snap and continued pressure from Twitter and Microsoft, the two giants continue to completely dominate the competition,” said analysts at the Motley Fool. “The trends favour both to continue growing faster than the rest of the industry for the foreseeable future, too.”
Twitter, according to eMarketer, is expected to see its mobile ad revenue decline, falling to about 5% to $1.15 billion. Snapchat is growing, with US ad revs predicted to spike 158% to $770 million this year, but that’s still a tiny sliver of what’s up for grabs.