The analyst calculates that the overall TV market is flattening out to end the year on 225 million units, achieving a value of $86 billion. Although 4K/Ultra HD growth is lower than expected, particularly in the USA, Futuresource believes that it is performing strongly, with shipments forecast to increase by 75% in 2016, accounting for a quarter of all TV shipments. On Black Friday, Futuresource research suggests that 4K UHD TVs will be the showpiece product for many retailers with deals seeing hundreds of dollars knocked off the price of sets from a wide variety of vendors. The report predicts that by 2020, 4KTVs will comprise three-fifths of total worldwide shipments.

Currently, smart TVs are on target to account for 59% of total shipments in 2016, but Futuresource regards its traction as remaining weak in some markets due to entrenched alternatives like pay-TV or slow Internet speeds. That said, Futuresource expects smart TV-capability will be shipped in three out of every four sets by 2020.

Eagerly-awaited but still hugely expensive OLED TVs are still emerging from their niche, with Futuresource observing an increase in the number of vendors producing TV sets with OLED panels. The analyst believes that OLED shipments will reach nearly a million units in 2016. Even though this accounts for less than 0.5% of total market volumes, Futuresource calculated that this figure still represents 3% in value terms, due to the premium positioning and associated pricing.

“Although we’ve seen the overall global picture stabilise this year, there have still been some major events at a country level, with France likely to see 20% growth whilst Mexico and Brazil are both forecast to suffer declines of over 10%,” said Jack Wetherill, senior market analyst at Futuresource Consulting. “Our research generates market data for 25 different countries and we’re seeing signs that demand in China will grow by at least 5% this year, with the country accounting for one out of every five TV shipments on the planet. India and other countries within Asia Pac are also making a positive impact on the worldwide figures.”