To misquote Mark Twain, reports of the death of the US cable industry in the US look like they have been greatly exaggerated, according to SNL Kagan - indeed the analyst says that the ten-year outlook is bright.
New data from the analyst indicates that the industry's broadband advantage and bundling stance will enhance revenues from 2016 to 2026. It also offers a slightly improved outlook for the video segment and continued upside for the broadband services, which will translate into revenue growth.US residential revenues are projected to increase from $108.38 billion in 2016 to $117.7 billion in 2026, or $9.32 billion over the ten-year interval. Contributions from commercial services will help push total industry revenue from $130.57 billion in 2016 to $140.99 billion in 2016, or $10.42 billion over this period.
Even though broadband subscriptions are forecast to increase by more than eight million over the next ten years, reaching 71 million, and coming in at more than 1.6 times the number of video subscriptions, basic video subscriptions are projected to drop by an annual compounded growth (CAGR) rate of 1.5% to 45.4 million by 2026, slower than the 1.7% CAGR in last year's ten-year projection.
SNL Kagan also found that worries about cord-shaving, in not cord-cutting, persist, finding reduced spending on multi-channel video especially in advanced services. SNL Kagan anticipates total revenues generated from residential video services, combining basic cable and advanced services, to fall at a 0.5% over the next ten years, to total $55 billion annually in 2026.
“Like many industries, cable isn't immune to shifting preferences, but continued growth in broadband may propel revenue growth on both the residential and commercial end,” said Tony Lenoir and Ian Olgeirson, the SNL Kagan researchers behind the report. “Despite ongoing declines in video, the next ten years look pretty good for this sector.”
