Due to lower demand for both TV and IT panels, unit-shipment growth is expected to decline 5% to 656 million units in 2016. Unit shipments of PC displays are also expected to fall 7%.

Despite unit-shipment declines, large thin-film transistor (TFT) liquid crystal display (LCD) size is expected to grow 5% year-over-year, to reach 168 million square meters total in 2016. LG Display will lead large TFT LCD area shipment growth in 2016 with 25% market share, followed by Samsung Display with 20% share. IHS defines large displays are those that are 9” and larger.

Panel makers are responding to slowing demand and migrate production to larger displays, according to the latest IHS Large Area Display Market Tracker. Display manufacturers are targeting a 24% year-over-year growth rate for 48” and larger panel sizes, which are expected to reach 93 million units in 2016. 4K LCD TV panels are expected to grow 73% in 2016, reaching 66 million units.

“Falling prices are causing panel makers to focus on the most profitable products, including larger displays and those employing newer display technologies,” said Yoonsung Chung, director of large area display research for IHS Technology. “From the panel maker’s perspective, area shipment is more important than unit shipments, so panel makers are accelerating the migration to larger TV panel sizes and higher resolutions.”

Because of ongoing production-capacity expansion, China is the only country expected to experience positive unit-shipment growth in 2016 in the large display segment. Chinese panel makers will enjoy 37% shipment-area growth and 12% unit-shipment growth in 2016, compared to the previous year. Area-shipment growth in South Korea will rise 2%, year-over-year.

“China’s power in the large TFT-LCD market is growing,” Chung said. “This trend could accelerate the shift to AMOLED by tier-one panel makers quicker than expected.”

The firm added that TV panels will drive growth in large AMOLED-area shipments, growing 124% year over year to reach one million square meters in 2016. In fact, TV is expected to comprise 92% of total large AMOLED panel shipments by area in 2016. However, unit-shipment growth is expected to decline slightly, due to slower demand from the tablet PC category. Large AMOLED unit shipments are forecast to fall 5%, year-over-year, to reach 3.7 million in 2016.