Marking its tenth birthday, the Convergence Consulting Group Group’s report calculates that in 2015 cable, satellite and telco TV access revenue grew 3% to $105 billion in 2015, but that growth will only inch along to $107 billion for 2016. By stark contrast, the analyst estimates that OTT access revenue — from the likes of CBS, HBO, Hulu, Lifetime, Netflix, Noggin, PlayStation, Seeso, Showtime Sling, Starz, Tribeca — grew 29% to $5.1 billion in 2015. This figure is set to rise to $6.7 billion for 2016.

Driving these revenue trends, said Convergence Consulting, was a 2015 decline of 1.131 million in US TV subscribers. Worryingly for the US pay-TV industry this compared with a fall of just 283,000 in the previous 12 months. For 2016, the analyst projects a decline of 1.112 million TV subscribers.

Convergence Consulting estimates 24.6 million US households (20.4%) did not have a traditional TV subscription with a cable, satellite or telco TV access provider, up from 22.5 million (18.8%) at the end of 2014. 2016 is forecast to deliver 26.7 million (21.9%). By contrast, the data also showed that at the end of 2015 there were cord-cutter/never household additions, with this number set to rise to 2.08 million for 2016.

Looking as to what the nature of these OTT users are, the report calculated that online subscription represented just over half of homes followed by kiosks at 17%, VOD (cable, satellite, telco TV) 15%, store 6%, Netflix mail 6% and online transactional, 5%.

Convergence Consulting also estimated that download movie/TV sales represented 21% of 2015 US DVD/Blu-ray/ download film/TV sales.