According to Digital Entertainment Group, it looks like the year will close out with digital and physical just about level, even as subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) spending officially outstrips rentals for the first time.

Spending on Blu-ray and DVD disks fell 14% over Q3 2014, to $1.146 billion. Electronic sell-through (EST) fell far short of making up the difference. Though EST increased 14% year-over-year, it amounted to just $434M million. In all, physical sales fell almost $200 million, while EST grew just $50 million.

Consumers, meanwhile, are moving their spending to SVOD and services like Netflix. This segment increased $240 million (23%) year-over-year to $1.23 billion.

Despite all of the shifting around of shares of wallet, overall home entertainment spending remains steady. In the third quarter consumers spent $3.96 billion, up 0.9% year-over-year. It looks likely that overall spending will be slightly up for the whole year, finishing 2015 at just shy of $9 billion.