Research from Forrester is predicting serious consequences to the pay-TV market from the march of cord-nevers, especially millennials.
The Forrester report shows that 2015 marks the year that digital cord-nevers — the generation of viewers who never acquire the pay-TV habit — have eclipsed cord-cutters in size. The data showed that in the US, 7% of adults under 32 years of age are digital cord-nevers, never having paid for TV. This compares with the entire cord-cutting population which comes in at 6% of all adults who are not paying for TV while still getting all the TV value they need from a combination of Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and other tools.
Currently young cord-nevers and their cord-cutter peers of the same age are responsible for as much as 25% of all mobile video viewing minutes.
In ten years, Forrester predicts that 50% of adults under 32 won't pay for TV, at least not in the way in which it is generally regarded currently. Currently 35% off this age group do not pay for TV in any form.
"TV is as beloved as ever, even as today's TV distribution model faces a gradually increasing threat," said Forrester principal analyst James McQuivey. "In particular, cord-nevers act like cord-cutters in their online viewing and represent the next stage of evolution in TV viewing. CMOs must experiment on cord-nevers and cord-cutters now to learn how to serve them later. The real challenge isn't how to deal with the end of TV, it's how to deal with the diminishing opportunities to reach this young audience.