In its first forecast for worldwide advertising expenditure in 2016, global media network Carat is predicting a big upswing in digital media spending, even when faced with negative economic headwinds.
Based on data received from 59 markets across the Americas, Asia Pacific and EMEA, Carat's latest global advertising expenditure forecasts show that digital media, with a predicted $17.1 billion or 15.7% increase in spend in 2015, is outpacing previous Carat predictions from September 2014. Powered by a dramatic rise in mobile ad spending globally of over 50%, and online video growth of 21.1% predicted in 2015, Carat forecasts that digital will, for the first time, account for more than a quarter of all advertising spend in 2016 with a market share of 25.9%.
Carat forecasts that in 2015 global advertising spend across all media will increase by $23.8 billion to reach $540 billion, accounting for a 4.6% year-on-year increase. Market optimism continues into 2016, with Carat's first forecast for the year predicting a year-on-year global advertising growth of 5.0%.
By platform, the analyst calculates that digital will achieve higher than predicted levels in 2014 of 17.4%, accounting for 21.7% of market share. Yet by the same calculation, TV will likely continue to command the majority of market share for the foreseeable future, reaching 42.7% in 2014, and is predicted to grow by more than 3% year-on-year in 2015 and 2016. The growing programmatic sector is also set to flourish with spending in the US alone predicted to grow by 137%, reaching spend levels of US$10 billion by 2016.
"With harder times behind us, negative growth markets are pleasingly now a minority, and collectively we can look ahead to 2016 with positive growth predicted for all key markets," said Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Dentsu Aegis Network, commenting on the Carat Advertising Expenditure forecasts. "The strength of digital continues to dominate discussions and the new distribution of spending. With a quarter of the global population now owning and relying on their smartphones daily, they are our second brain in our hands. Mobile dominates the way consumers access information, view content, browse products and purchase goods and this is reflected in the innovative services and approach we are discussing with our clients."