Analyst: TV Everywhere threatens TV’s primary revenue stream | News | Rapid TV News
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TV viewers, to paraphrase a British Prime Minister, may feel like they have never had it so good, but a leading industry analyst is warning that efforts to offer content any place, any time, over any device may be threatening the prime revenue source of advertising.

According to BTIG’s Richard Greenfield, rapid uptake of time-shifting DVRs and the emergence of place-shifting technologies such as Slingbox, video-on-demand and over the top services such as Netflix are permanently altering consumer behaviour, “cementing consumers’ lack of interest in advertising.”

Moreover, Greenfield expresses disappointment that to date the main response of the broadcasting industry in the US to the new Hopper function from DISH Network is to sue based on the belief that the ad skipping function will destroy their advertising business model. He urged a rethink: “TV broadcasters need to adapt to changing consumer behaviour and innovate versus litigate.”

And Greenfield says broadcasters should expect more disruption from retrans, an area which he says “appears ripe for technological disruption, with broadcasters ‘milking’ escalating retrans fees with little to no innovation.” He predicts that by 2020, retrans fees will be in the region of $12 billion bases on the assumption of $2/sub/month, with 100 million subs. Yet he warns that there is a big game changer in the Aereo service that seeks to leverage consumers’ ability to receive broadcast signals for free, without paying retrains.

In conclusion, Greenfield, believes that threats to the TV broadcasting dual revenue stream model of advertising and also retrains are growing.  And while it does not think neither Aereo nor Hopper will destroy the broadcast business if they withstand legal challenges, they will certainly have a negative impact on profitability and force broadcasters to rethink their business model.

He argues that advertising will have to become less-frequent, far more targeted and potentially more integrated into the content itself.