New on-demand services, such as catch-up, VOD, SVOD, connected TV will increase their share of the global video market from 3% in 2011 to 12 % by 2020.
According to new French research company Idate’s Next Gen TV 2020 study, that provides in-depth analysis of what the TV markets will become between now and 2020, also forecasts connected TV will be a significant market and account for 63% of the new OTT services, as PC use taking a backseat. They will even enjoy a high share in developed countries.
“The upshot, then is that managed networks’ share of the new services market will decline,” revealed Gilles Fontaine, Idate’s Deputy CEO and Project Manager for the report.
Between 2011 and 2020, the global video services market will grow by an average of 4.7 % a year and according to Idate’s modelling, the global TV services market will total €355 billion in 2020, compared with €233 billion in 2011.
“We will see three distribution models emerge, “ Fontaine added, “The packager (like what cable and satellite do), the digital store (an open platform that makes all content available to viewers) and self-supply, thanks to the destruction of the exclusive link between the access network and the TV set. “
However, Idate anticipates growth will vary from region to region. The top five European countries, along with Japan and the US, all represented 80% of the global video services market in 2011. Their share will drop to 60% in 2020 in favour of emerging economies.
Growth rates in developed countries will also vary. In the US, the maturity of the pay-TV market and competition between OTT services will weigh on the sector’s revenues.
In Europe, Idate believes Italy and Spain live TV markets still have more room to grow than the French and English markets. It also posits the structure of Germany’s cable market will continue to prevent the development of a national pay-TV market.