A report from Digital TV Research is predicting that the Western European pay-TV market is slowing down and that IPTV subscribers will overtake pay satellite TV ones by 2018.
The Digital TV Western Europe report forecasts that IPTV subscriptions will climb 38% between 2013 and 2020 with 7.5 million subs compared with 1.2 million additions for both satellite- and DTT-based pay-TV, which would be rises of 5% and 22% respectively. Digital cable is set to increase by 42% to nearly 13 million.
Yet despite these rises, backed by more encouraging macro economic conditions, the report also warns that pay-TV subscriptions will only increase by 8.7 million (6.6%) between 2013 and 2020 to 103.65 million. Digital pay-TV subscribers will increase by 28.1% (nearly 23 million) as analogue customers fade from 14.03 million to zero by 2019.
Moreover the report suggests that business is slowing down, with revenues from pay-TV services to remain flat at around $33 billion. The analyst calculates that despite sub numbers rising and that it will remain the most lucrative pay-TV platform, satellite TV revenues will fall every year from 2011. Cable TV revenues peaked in 2012 and are set to lose $1.3 billion (10.2%) between 2013 and 2020 as subscriber numbers fall by 2.6%. By contrast, IPTV revenues are forecast to climb by 26.3% between 2013 and 2020 to $4.91 billion with subscriber numbers up by 38.4%.
Predicted to rake in $7.535 billion, the UK will be the most lucrative pay-TV market by 2020 despite Germany having the most subscribers. Germany's pay-TV revenues are predicted to amount to $4.741 billion with Italy not too far away on $4.539 billion.
- Joseph O'Halloran