The current online video proliferation will show no signs of stopping and will be massively monetised over the next five years, according to a survey from Digital TV Research.
Fundamentally, the analyst believes that the over-the-top (OTT) TV sector is on the brink of a huge take-off as the key players expand internationally, broadband penetration increases, technology advances and new partnerships are announced on a daily basis.
In its Online TV and Video Forecasts report, Digital TV Research calculates that by 2018, 520 million homes in 40 countries will watch online television and video, up from 182 million in 2010, and generate revenues of $34.99 billion. This is more than double the $15.94 billion expected to be generated in 2013 and almost nine times that recorded in 2010.
Online TV and video advertising has been the key driver for the OTT sector, with revenues of $7.4 billion expected in 2013, up from $2.4 billion in 2010. Rapid advertising expenditure growth will continue, to reach a global total of $16.4 billion in 2018. However, advertising’s share of total OTT revenues will fall from 60.6% in 2010 to 46.9% in 2018.
Driving the money truck that is the paid-for OTT market will be subscription services. The analyst notes that although the likes of Netflix and Hulu Plus are already reasonably well established as streaming subscription services in North America, international markets have been to date relatively untouched.
Further adding to the bottom line will be what Digital TV Research expects to be a “soaring” online TV and subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) revenues, set to grow from $1 billion in 2010 to $6 billion in 2013 and $13 billion in 2018. The number of homes likely to pay a monthly fee to receive SVOD packages is forecast to climb from 21.9 million in 2010 to 67.8 million by end-2013 and 160.6 million in 2018.
Yet it won’t be plain sailing across the board. Even though it believes online TV and video rental/pay-per-view revenues will still expand rapidly, climbing from $207 million in 2010 to $2,103 million in 2018, the company cautioned that the move towards subscription services will likely stifle the pay-per-view or rental market somewhat as they provide similar consumer propositions. In addition it envisages the fast take-up of subscription services will also adversely affect download-to-own (DTO) buying patterns. That said, DTO revenues are forecast to be $3,506 million in 2018, up from $330 million in 2010.